Trump's hopes dashed? Tariffs drive US agricultural trade deficit to new highs

Since taking office, US President Trump has implemented a series of aggressive tariff policies, one of the goals of which is to reduce the US trade deficit with other countries. However, as a major agricultural nation, the US agricultural trade deficit has continued to widen.

The US agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenges facing Trump.

Data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday (September 8) showed that US agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a 9% increase from the same period last year and a record high for a single month. This brought the US agricultural trade deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of this year.

The main reason for the widening agricultural trade deficit this year is a surge in imports. In the first seven months of this year, the US imported over $132 billion worth of agricultural products, an increase of nearly 8% from the same period last year. At the same time, exports from the sector fell 1.3% to $98.8 billion.

These data further solidify a shift that has been underway since Trump's first term: agriculture, which has long maintained a large trade surplus, is becoming a net importer.

This shift stems from limited expansion in crop and livestock production, increased overseas competition, and growing American demand for imported goods. Trump's trade war has also had an impact, increasing the reliance of major crop importers on Brazilian supplies.

For the past 50 years, U.S. agriculture has consistently enjoyed a trade surplus, but this trend shifted during President Trump's first term.

For the past few years, U.S. agricultural imports have consistently exceeded exports, and the deficit has continued to widen. Data shows that the U.S. agricultural trade deficit is expected to be approximately $20 billion in 2023. In the first nine months of 2024, the agricultural trade deficit was $46.75 billion.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a record agricultural trade deficit of $49.5 billion in fiscal year 2025.

Currently, Trump is imposing tariffs on other countries in an attempt to narrow the overall deficit. The United States officially implemented a new round of comprehensive tariffs in August, adding to the base rate implemented in April.

However, contrary to expectations, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on September 4, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened sharply by 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July 2025.