Bank of America's latest estimates show that by 2030, global energy demand will fall sharply, oil demand is approaching its peak, and even the large-scale rollout of power-hungry artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure cannot stop this trend.
"Crude oil demand is at risk," the bank wrote in a newly released report. "Despite the hype about how power-hungry AI and data centers are, we believe that global energy consumption should grow by less than 3% per year by 2030. Correspondingly, annual growth in oil use may struggle to break through 1%."
According to the study, global GDP growth has fallen substantially since the first decade of this century, from an average of 6.5% to 4.9% this decade. Structural headwinds will keep global GDP growth stagnant between 3% and 3.5% in the next few years.
Bank of America points out that when economic growth slows, global energy demand will naturally decrease. The bank expects crude oil demand growth to fall sharply by 2030: from 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Meanwhile, the bank also noted that growth in the United States could be different, with the economy expected to remain strong and the rush to build energy-intensive artificial intelligence centers expected to drive electricity demand growth in the region to its highest level in 20 years.
But it is important to note that Bank of America emphasizes that this does not necessarily mean a recovery in oil demand. Instead, renewable energy will account for a larger share of electricity supply in the United States. Solar energy is estimated to be the fastest growing energy source this year.
Bank of America also said that the widespread acceptance of green energy will continue to be an important factor behind the decline in oil consumption worldwide. Even if the Trump administration succeeds in curbing policies related to electric vehicles or wind power, the growth momentum of renewable energy around the world is strong.
"Energy transition spending is still growing strongly. Even Saudi Arabia is now rapidly turning to wind and solar power and will significantly reduce its crude oil and fuel oil consumption in the power sector. Demand for other fuels is also limited." The report said.
Of course, Bank of America is not the first to predict that global oil demand will peak. Such forecasts are at the heart of the dispute between OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA expects crude oil demand to peak before 2030, specifically, it expects oil demand to peak in 2029 at 105.6 million barrels per day.
But OPEC emphasizes that oil demand will continue to grow in the medium and long term, and the peak will not occur in the foreseeable future. OPEC believes that the IEA's forecast is overly catered to the political agenda and ignores the dependence of developing countries on traditional energy and the need for economic growth.
In addition, Vitol Energy Group, the world's largest independent energy trader, also expects global oil demand to not decline until at least 2040. Vitol Energy Group's daily oil trading volume accounts for about 7% of the world's oil supply. The company expects global demand to peak at nearly 110 million barrels per day by 2030, and then fall back to the current level of about 105 million barrels per day in 2040.
