Will Russia open its doors to the US with 3.8 million tons of rare earths? Putin wants to make a deal with Trump.

The value of rare earth elements undoubtedly shines brightly in the global economic and geopolitical arena. Recently, Russia opened its doors to the world of rare earths, hoping to trade them for the lifting of US sanctions.

This seemingly simple deal hides a complex game of interests and future developments.

Dmitriy Dimuhamedov, Chairman of the Russian Association of Rare Metals Producers and Consumers, has publicly stated that Russia is willing to do rare earth business with the US and is ready to reach a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

President Putin has clearly stated that the rare earth industry is a strategic priority, and developing this sector will effectively enhance Russia's global competitiveness.

Given the current sanctions dilemma, Putin has clearly calculated the deal: trading abundant rare earth resources for the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia, particularly bans on technology products, is a truly cost-effective deal for Russia, which desperately needs an "economic breakthrough."

Currently, Russia's rare earth reserves are among the highest in the world, reaching 3.8 million tons. However, for a long time, it has only been exporting these resources at a rudimentary stage, failing to achieve high-value-added conversion.

The proposed "2 million tons annual supply" plan is actually an attempt to compensate for market share lost due to sanctions by increasing production.

While Putin appears to be extending an olive branch to the United States, he is actually opening a window for Russia's economy.

Trump, on the other hand, is not backing down. He expressed his interest in rare earth cooperation with Russia as early as the beginning of the year.

The United States' reliance on China for rare earth imports is an open secret, and as trade frictions between the two countries escalate, Trump can sense his own shortcomings becoming increasingly apparent.

Especially against the backdrop of China's gradual tightening of rare earth exports, Trump has been forced to consider alternatives. Russia's abundant rare earth reserves and proximity to Alaska naturally attract him.

The rare earth cooperation between the United States and Russia can be described as a classic "resources for security" deal.

Both sides are calculating the pros and cons: Russia wants sanctions lifted, while the United States hopes to break free from its dependence on Chinese rare earths. This game of exchanging interests often plays out in the dynamics of power in international relations, and Trump appears to be attempting to exploit this to achieve his own goals.

However, the game between Russia and the United States is not as simple as one might imagine. While the two countries were busy haggling, China's secretly planned "rare earth digital ID" system had quietly launched.

This system, capable of tracking the entire rare earth mining and export process, would transform China from a mere resource supplier to a global rule-maker. Any country seeking to participate in the rare earth trade would be forced to adhere to the standards set by China.

This means that even if Russia and the United States reach an agreement, final rare earth processing will likely still rely on China's advanced smelting technology.

No matter how grand the calculations of Trump and Putin are, they will hardly change this new reality. While the new generation of permanent magnet materials currently being developed by the United States could theoretically reduce its dependence on rare earths, commercialization of these results will take at least a decade.

In the short term, the United States still faces the challenge of how to quickly meet its demand for rare earths.

From this perspective, this seemingly simple "rare earths for sanctions" deal actually reflects a complex web of interests and power dynamics.

We will conduct an in-depth analysis from the following perspectives:

1. The Importance of Technology: Although Russia possesses abundant mineral resources, it lacks core smelting technology and control over the supply chain. This is particularly crucial in the global competition for resources. Those who possess technology and standards are the true winners.
2. Geopolitics of Reshaping Interests: The shift in attitudes between the US and Russia is not surprising; the fundamental reason lies in a reassessment of interests. Ideology and international friendships are often re-evaluated in the face of resource security and economic interests.
3. Short-term deals cannot change long-term dynamics: Short-term cooperation between Russia and the US may not fundamentally alter the global rare earth supply chain. China's dominance of rules, the EU's predicament, and the US's technological shortcomings are all key factors influencing the future international order.

This global rare earth competition is destined to persist, and all countries are quietly calculating their gains and losses. On the scales of resources and rules, interests and morality, there are no absolute friends or enemies, only the cold, unwavering compass of interests.

In the future, whoever masters core technologies and rules will have the opportunity to prevail in this game.

It can be seen that the games and negotiations between countries are ultimately a deep-seated struggle over resources and technology.

What we need to understand is that behind those seemingly simple transactions lie complex interplay of interests and future development trends.

In this war for resources and rules, every step has the potential to trigger major changes. Let us wait and see.